Promotions are slowing down, even for top performers. The numbers show it. In early 2024, just 1.3 percent of white-collar workers received promotions, the lowest rate in years. That drop is not random. It is structural.
Companies are flattening. Layers of management are disappearing as organizations shift to leaner models. Many of these moves are driven by AI. Tasks that once required oversight can now be tracked, scored, or automated. A single manager might supervise twice as many people as before. That sounds efficient on paper. In practice, it means there are fewer roles to move into.
At the same time, hybrid work has changed the way leaders see performance. Or fail to see it. In-office employees are more likely to get promoted than remote ones, even when the remote worker is outperforming. Managers often reward the people they see most, not the people delivering the most value. Visibility becomes a proxy for trust.
That has consequences, especially for early-career workers and working parents, many of them women, who rely on hybrid flexibility. When leadership ties advancement to face time, people with caregiving responsibilities are pushed to the margins. The workplace reverts to a model that quietly penalizes balance.
Meanwhile, the practice of “dry promotions” is spreading. That means giving someone a bigger title or more responsibility without the corresponding raise or authority. Companies justify this by citing budget freezes or internal reshuffling. Employees experience it as bait-and-switch. Morale suffers. Trust erodes. People begin to disengage. Some leave entirely.
The damage is hard to see at first. High performers rarely cause problems. They just stop going above and beyond. Over time, the culture shifts. Discretionary effort disappears. Turnover creeps up. The best people leave, and the cost to replace them is higher than the raise would have been in the first place.
What Leaders Should Do Now
Fixing this will take more than recognition. It will take real changes to how advancement works.
Define transparent promotion criteria. Every employee should know what it takes to move up. Publish the criteria. Normalize conversations about growth. Ambiguity benefits no one.
Reward outcomes, not optics. If someone is consistently delivering strong results, reward them, even if they do it quietly or remotely. Set the standard that output matters more than office politics.
Train managers to spot bias. Proximity bias is real. So is familiarity bias. Managers must be taught to evaluate performance fairly, across work modes and personality types.
Fund promotions with integrity. A new title without new pay is not a reward. It is a liability. Invest in advancement now or pay for attrition later.
Build succession into team structure. High performers should be able to grow without being trapped by their own success. Train backups. Share knowledge. Let people rise.
Audit promotion data for equity. Look at who is getting promoted. Look at who is not. Then act. If trends show disparities across gender, work mode, or age, close those gaps deliberately.
The workplace has changed. Opportunity needs to change with it.