The latest development surrounding Chris Christie’s candidacy casts a shadow of uncertainty over his campaign. Christie, the former New Jersey Governor and a vocal critic of Donald Trump, faces the real possibility of being excluded from the upcoming GOP debate in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. This situation stems from his failure to meet the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) polling thresholds, a key criterion for debate participation.
The RNC mandates that candidates must secure at least 6% in polls meeting their standards. They can use either two national surveys or one national survey combined with polls from two early nominating states to meet this requirement. Currently, only three candidates have satisfied these conditions: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump, despite easily meeting these thresholds, has chosen to skip the debates.
Christie’s campaign, which claims to exceed the 80,000-donor threshold, remains optimistic about his debate participation. Despite this confidence, Christie’s poll numbers tell a different story. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls places him at a meager 2.2%, significantly below the 6% threshold. His standings in Iowa (4%) and South Carolina (3%) also fall short. The lack of sufficient polling data from Nevada further complicates his situation.
This predicament is not just a numerical challenge but also a critical test of Christie’s campaign rhetoric and political credibility. Previously, he had asserted that candidates failing to make the debate stage should exit the race, a statement that now haunts his campaign. Currently ranked third in polls among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, Christie faces a stark reality: the absence from the debate stage could irreparably damage his campaign’s viability and reputation.
Christie’s efforts to position himself as a key contender in a “three-person race” in New Hampshire, alongside Haley and Trump, are now in jeopardy. Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chair, succinctly sums up the situation: not making the debate stage could end a candidate’s serious consideration by voters, a setback from which recovery is nearly impossible. Chris Christie’s campaign, once a beacon of outspoken challenge within the GOP, now teeters on the edge of political obscurity. His ability to navigate this crucial juncture will not only determine his fate in the upcoming debate but also the trajectory of his presidential aspirations.