There is a issue lurking in the shadow of increasing high school graduation rates and diversifying student demographics and there lies a looming challenge that threatens to reshape the fabric of our workforce and economy: the steady decline in the number of high school graduates post-2025.
Recent projections from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) present a paradoxical trend. On one hand, we are witnessing a rise in graduation rates, particularly among students of color, leading to larger-than-anticipated graduating classes up to the Class of 2025. This is a commendable achievement, reflecting improvements in educational access and quality. However, this uptick masks a concerning trajectory. Post-2025, we’re staring at a gradual but persistent shrinkage in the pool of high school graduates, a consequence of the ‘birth dearth’ phenomenon tied to the economic disruptions of the Great Recession.
This decline poses substantial economic implications. Firstly, the shrinking number of graduates signals a potential workforce crunch. Industries reliant on young, entry-level workers may face shortages, driving up labor costs and potentially stalling growth. This is particularly critical in sectors like technology and healthcare, where a continuous influx of fresh talent is essential for innovation and service delivery.
Moreover, the demographic shift in these graduating classes cannot be ignored. The increasing diversity — with growing numbers of Hispanic and multiracial students — is a positive development, reflecting our nation’s evolving social tapestry. However, systemic inequities in education and employment mean that these demographic groups often face higher barriers to economic opportunities. Addressing these disparities is crucial to ensuring that the future workforce is not only sizeable but also skilled and equitably engaged.
Furthermore, the anticipated decline in high school graduates will reverberate through higher education and the job market. Colleges and universities, particularly those in regions with steeper declines, may struggle with lower enrollment, impacting their financial stability and capacity to serve as engines of social mobility. In the job market, employers will need to adapt to a smaller, more diverse pool of candidates, necessitating investments in training and development programs to bridge skill gaps.
The challenge, therefore, is twofold: we must not only strive to sustain the current improvements in high school education but also prepare for the impending demographic changes. This requires a concerted effort from educators, policymakers, and industry leaders to innovate in education and workforce development, ensuring that every student, irrespective of background, is equipped with the skills and opportunities to thrive in the evolving economic landscape.
While we celebrate the achievements in high school education, we must not lose sight of the challenges ahead. The decline in the number of high school graduates is not just an educational issue; it’s an economic one that calls for a proactive, inclusive approach to workforce development. Only by acknowledging and addressing this impending shift can we ensure a robust and equitable economic future.
Inside Higher Ed. (2020, December 15). More high school graduates through 2025, but pool still shrinks afterward. Inside Higher Ed. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/12/15/more-high-school-graduates-through-2025-pool-still-shrinks-afterward