As the conflict in Ukraine rages on, the world watches with bated breath, waiting for a resolution. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic calculus seems to be driven by more than just military considerations. A closer look reveals a complex interplay of economic factors and political maneuvering, particularly with regard to the upcoming U.S. Presidential election in 2024.
The U.S. Presidential election has always been a significant event on the global stage, influencing not just American policy but also international relations. The current President, Joe Biden, has been a vocal critic of Putin’s actions in Ukraine, leading a coordinated international response that includes severe economic sanctions against Russia. These sanctions have had a significant impact on the Russian economy, causing a sharp depreciation of the ruble and leading to increased inflation.
However, Putin may be playing a longer game. By prolonging the conflict, he could be hoping to influence the U.S. Presidential election. An ongoing war in Ukraine could be a thorn in Biden’s side during his re-election campaign, potentially weakening his standing with voters.
Putin may believe that a different U.S. administration could take a softer stance on Russia. While this is speculative and highly dependent on the candidates in the U.S. election, it is a factor that Putin could be considering.
Moreover, Putin may be banking on the resilience of the Russian economy. Despite the sanctions and the immediate economic fallout, Russia has a history of weathering economic storms. The country has significant foreign exchange reserves, and its economy is largely energy-dependent, with oil and gas exports being a major source of revenue.
While current oil prices have been volatile due to the conflict, Russia could potentially leverage its energy resources in the future to help its economy recover. This could be particularly true if global energy prices rise, which is a possibility given the ongoing energy transition and the need for fossil fuels in the interim.
However, this strategy is not without risks. The Russian economy is already feeling the strain of the sanctions, and a prolonged war could exacerbate these issues. Inflation is rising, the ruble is depreciating, and the Russian central bank has been forced to raise interest rates sharply.
Furthermore, the global community has shown a strong and united front against Russia’s actions. The sanctions have been coordinated and wide-ranging, affecting not just the Russian government but also individual Russian oligarchs and businesses.
While Putin’s actions may seem irrational from a military and economic standpoint, they could be part of a broader political strategy. By prolonging the conflict, Putin could be hoping to influence the U.S. Presidential election and potentially secure a more favorable outcome for Russia. However, this strategy is fraught with risks, and only time will tell if it will pay off.